The Hogweed Effect
Is the Ukrainian front about to crumble?
Dmitry Orlov
C l u b O r l o v | ideas to blow your mind
February 03, 2023 at 06:18 | Has readers’ comments | For subscribers only | Here
A major development seems to be underway on the Ukrainian side of the slow-moving frontline. For months now the only reason the Ukrainians have been able to hold their own against the Russians is because their access, via mobile internet, to NATO satellite data and analytical information has been allowing their artillery and rocket systems to precisely target Russian equipment and troops. This forced the Russians to act quickly: roll to a position, fire a salvo ata Ukrainian target and scoot away before that position can be targeted. The data feed is provided by Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet terminals, some 20,000 of them, spread out across the entire 1,000km frontline. As often happens, and as I pointed out in my 2017 book Shrinking the Technosphere, often the most efficient and cost-effective form of technology is counter-technology: cheap but effective devices that turn very expensive, advanced technology into a useless heap of junk. This is precisely what is happening now thanks to the efforts of brilliant young Russian engineers and scientists working at the Sestroretsk military factory.
They have done something that the American designers of Starlink terminals thought was impossible. Their new truck-mounted system, Borschevik, is able to pinpoint the locations of active Starlink terminals within a 180º sector and a 10km radius to an accuracy of 5m. It is a passive system, meaning that it cannot be discovered using the signal it sends because it doesn’t send any. The truck is a small, moving target and the system does its job in two minutes if stationary and in 15 minutes if moved from point to point, targeting a maximum of 64 Starlink terminals at a time. The targeting information is then transmitted to artillery and missile batteries automatically.
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