The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should be remembered that our model, defined by 50-year socio-economic and 80-year institutional cycles, simply notes historical rhythms and assumes that they tend to repeat themselves. So far, the model has tended to be correct. But it provides no explanation of why there is an orderly parade of events. It does not explain the most important thing: causation. The only argument for the model is that it has worked so far. Given this, it would seem likely that this cycle of unrest will last until 2028.

It seems that elections, rather than periods of time, are the markers for this model, which is marked by two terms of tension followed by a new president who calms things down. Such was the case for Franklin D. Roosevelt, who oversaw the Great Depression and World War II. Such was also the case for Ronald Reagan, who oversaw the tension of the culture wars that arose partly from the Vietnam War.

According to our model, they were both critical presidents who, to a great extent, ended the crisis of their times. The question is: Was it they who stabilized the situation, or was it someone or something else? In both cases, tension was overridden by a more powerful force, and each leader used that force to calm the system. For Roosevelt, it was World War II that stabilized the economy and created a new sense of unity. For Reagan, it was the collapse of the Soviet Union that rendered Vietnam marginal and gave the government a sense of competence and achievement.

Coming back to the question of how this ends, it would seem that a foreign policy success in or about 2028 could calm the system. World War II and the Cold War were major events with far-reaching consequences. It’s hard to see anything at this point that could similarly affect the global system.

Therein lies the problem: There is an order to the political system that is easy to see but hard to explain. I forecast the current domestic crisis but gave no reason for its occurrence. And when a method has worked without explanation, it is hard not to use and build on it.

The point here is that, based on our model, it appears that the tension of the sorts that we are seeing now will continue until 2028. The inability to explain why something works calls for caution in both using it and ignoring it.

Text: Original here.

Image: Original here.

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Political map of Europe in 771, showing the Franks and their neighbors in Charlemagne

The birth of Gallo-Roman-Germanic Europe,
a Europe of which Portugal is not, has never been, a part,
despite being currently subject to it.

The Franks: the Birth of Modern Europe

When the Roman Empire fell and the Franks, the barbarians, started uniting via alliances and conquests, no one could predict them to grow into a powerful kingdom that, thanks to outstanding kings — Charles Martell and Charlemagne — would conquer half of Europe. Watch the video to dive into the details of the Frankish conquest, their transformation from a kingdom into an empire, and the fall of this great power.

Carolingian Empire

The Carolingian Empire (800–887) was a Frankish-dominated empire in Western and Central Europe during the Early Middle Ages. It was ruled by the Carolingian dynasty, which had ruled as kings of the Franks since 751 and as kings of the Lombards in Italy from 774. In 800, the Frankish king Charlemagne was crowned emperor in Rome by Pope Leo III in an effort to transfer the Roman Empire from the Byzantine Empire to Western Europe. The Carolingian Empire is sometimes considered the first phase in the history of the Holy Roman Empire.

Charlemagne's additions to the Frankish Kingdom in Charlemagne

Treaty of Verdun (843)

The Treaty of Verdun (French: Traité de Verdun), agreed in August 843, divided the Frankish Empire into three kingdoms between Lothair I, Louis II and Charles II, the surviving sons of the emperor Louis I, the son and successor of Charlemagne. The treaty was concluded following almost three years of civil war and was the culmination of negotiations lasting more than a year. It was the first in a series of partitions contributing to the dissolution of the empire created by Charlemagne and has been seen as foreshadowing the formation of many of the modern countries of western Europe.
The treaty was the first of the four partition treaties of the Carolingian Empire, followed by the Treaties of Prüm (855), Meerssen (870), and Ribemont (880).

Partition of the Frankish Empire after the Treaty of Verdun 843.
From left to right: Francia Occidentalis, Francia Media, Francia Orientalis.

The Dissolution of the Frankish Empire

Apart from a successful insurrection by the Basques, attacks from Vikings and Arabs, and that Benevento definitely had slipped out of Frankish control, the Empire of Charlemagne was still intact until 843. South of Bavaria, direct rule over the Slavic principality of Karantania had been introduced in 828. Charlemagne himself had intended to divide his empire between his sons but only one of them, Louis the Pious, was alive when he died 814. Louis the Pious inherited the entire empire except Italy which was ruled by his nephew Bernhard, but Louis defeated him in 818. Unlike his father, Louis wanted to preserve the unity of the Frankish Empire. His younger sons were given kingdoms of their own, but they had to acknowledge their elder brother Lothair’s overlordship as Roman emperor. These vassal kingdoms were Aquitaine (Pepin) and Bavaria (Louis the German), both of them created in 817. A third kingdom (Swabia) was created in 829 to the youngest son Charles the Bald. The arrangement with the younger brothers having to be vassals to the eldest brother was a clear break against the Frankish tradition and civil war between the three surviving brothers broke out when Louis the Pious died in 840. The civil war resulted in the treaty of Verdun in which the Frankish empire was divided into three parts, Lothair got the middle kingdom and kept the title of emperor but without overlordship over his brothers. Pepin had died in 838 and his son Pepin II fought in vain to hold on to his father's kingdom of Aquitaine. He was finally defeated in 852.

Left and right, in light blue, loosely held territories.

Having been denied expansion to the south, the Gallo-Roman-Germans expanded eastward at the expense of the Western Slavs, the Balts and the Finns who, depending on the case, were exterminated, subjected and Germanized or simply subjected, a expansion that went well until they clashed with the Eastern Slavs who were Christianized by the Eastern Roman Empire.

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