Russia ‘ready’ for a break in relations with the EU, says Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Crucial statement by Foreign Minister Lavrov

The Saker | The Vineyard of the Saker | February 12, 2021 | Original & Comments

Foreign Minister Lavrov just made the following statement that Russia is willing to sever her ties with the EU if the EU introduces new sanctions.  He said:

Мы исходим из того, что мы готовы [к разрыву с Евросоюзом]. Если мы еще раз увидим, как мы уже почувствовали не единожды, что в каких-то областях накладываются санкции, которые создают риски для нашей экономики, в том числе в самых чувствительных сферах, — да. Хочешь мира — готовься к войне

We proceed from the fact that we are ready [to break with the European Union]. If we once again see, as we have already felt more than once, that sanctions are imposed in some areas that create risks for our economy, including in the most sensitive areas, – yes. If you want peace, prepare for war.

This is exactly what I have been advocating for and predicting.

Not a moment too soon.

The Saker

Neither bull nor bear: we may be in a ‘headless chicken’ market 
Russian bear cartoon travel poster Wall Clock

The Saker | February 09, 2011 The Unz Review | Here The Vineyard of the Saker | Here 

Introducing the headless chicken

The EU has a major problem: it is run by a comprador class which is entirely dependent on the United States. Okay, that by itself is not the problem I am referring to. The problem I am referring to is one we could call the problem of the decapitated chicken: a decapitated chicken can run without a head, but it sure does not know where it is running or why. This happens to all comprador classes when their beloved masters suddenly vanish. This is exactly what happened to the European ruling classes when Trump came to the White House: they “lost their head” and they began running all over the place, obviously achieving nothing. Now that the Neocons gave Trump the boot, the EU rulers are desperate to show the new US leaders that they only hated Trump, not the US, and what better way to show your complete submission than by barking at the Asiatic Mordor of the East known as “Russia”?

This latest PSYOP was apparently organized in the US last fall, while Trump was still in power, at least nominally. This makes sense, just like the huge “Patriot Act” was carefully prepared months, if not years before 9/11 happened. This time around, some US intelligence agency (probably the CIA) then passed the baby to the German BND which was supposed to act as an intermediary to give the US “plausible deniability”. The big problem is that the Germans apparently screwed things up, and the plan was a flop: the latest sacral victim failed to die (again!). As for Putin, he used his executive power to allow Navalnyi (who was on parole) to immediately fly to Germany for treatment as soon as the Russian medics stabilized him. From there on, everything went south and Navalnyi’s curators scrambled to save whatever could be saved.

They produced a movie about Putin’s palace in Crimea, only to have Russian reporters film the location and prove that this movie was a total fake. Then they sent Navalnyi back to Russia figuring that if the Russian authorities arrested him huge protests would follow or, alternatively, if the Russians did nothing, Navalnyi would be able to create chaos during an important election year in Russia. This resulted in another flop, not only were the crowds in Russia small, their behavior was deeply offensive and even frightening to most Russians who have seen enough Maidans and color revolutions to know how this stuff ends. As for Navalnyi, he was arrested immediately upon landing, and his parole was revoked.

Of course, all this was reported very differently in what I call Zone A, but while this made it possible for the authors of this PSYOP to conceal the magnitude of their failure, in the rest of the world and, especially, in Russia, it was pretty clear that this ridiculous buffoonery had failed. That outcome presented the EU headless chicken with a major problem: on one hand, we protest about “Putin murdering his own people with combat gasses” while on the other we are about to complete North Stream 2 (NS2), which we need to remain competitive; if we continue, we will lose NS2 and we will alienate Russia even further, but if we stop acting like an idiot on suicide watch, our overseas masters will make us pay. EU leaders obviously failed agree on a plan so, just like a headless chicken, they ran in all directions at the same time: they publicly protested, but also sent as top official, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission Josep Borrell, to try to appease the Russians. Borrell actually did a decent job trying to placate the Russians, but this time something went very wrong. Not only was Foreign Minister Lavrov very blunt in his public comments, the Russians also expelled 3 EU diplomats for participating in the demonstrations even while Borrell and Lavrov were talking. This is when the proverbial bovine excreta hit the fan, at least in EU whose “watchdog media” (here I use the term “watchdog” as meaning “immediately barking at anybody daring to stray from the official propaganda line”) went crazy and accused Borrell of caving in to the Russians. Some even demanded Borrell’s resignation. As for Borrell himself, he did what all western officials do after a visit to Moscow: he changed his tune as soon as he came back home. Finally, Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, added that “The task [of Borrell] was to carry out a public flogging, which, I think, they planned very carefully, it was a cascade of topics: talks about rallies, talks about journalists, and making [Alexey] Navalny the main theme of the discussion”. According to Zakharova, this plan failed because Russia insisted on discussing the “real issues“.

Interestingly, the Russians did not expel any US diplomats (at least not yet) in spite of the fact that these officials all agreed that the origin of the PSYOP was from overseas and in spite of the quasi-certainty that US officials must have been present, at least in the Moscow and Saint Petersburg protests. To its credit, the US embassy in Moscow did recommend to all US citizens that they stay away from illegal demonstrations. This is an ongoing crisis and by the time this analysis is posted, things might have changed dramatically. My purpose today is not to look at the US or the EU, but at what I believe is a major shift in Russian policy.

At this point, we should not see the expulsions of the 3 EU diplomats as anything more than just a “shot across the bow”, a way to indicate that the winds have changed. But these expulsions are not big enough to qualify as a real, painful, retaliation. Why?

Because the real slap in the collective face of the EU was the press conference of Lavrov and Borrell in which Lavrov was truly uniquely direct and candid. For example, Lavrov bluntly said ” We are proceeding from the assumption that the EU is not a reliable partner, at least at the current stage. I hope that in future strategic attention will be given to the EU’s fundamental interest in its closest neighbours and that the talks we have held today will promote movement to a more constructive trajectory. We are ready for this“.

Translated from diplospeak into plain English, this means 1) we are fed up with you and 2) we don’t need you.

This blunt statement is what triggered all the subsequent hysterics in Brussels about Borrell being ill treated by the Russians and Borrell’s subsequent declaration that “Russia does not want a constructive dialog” and that the EU must now decide if it still wants to get closer to Russia or if it wants to distance itself from a country slipping into authoritarianism.

Has the Russian bear had enough?

Just two weeks ago I wrote that With “Biden” in the White House, the Kremlin Now Needs to Change Gear and I believe that this is exactly what we are seeing today. Here is my evidence:

• The tone of the Russian has changed and is much more direct and blunt


• The fact that the three EU diplomats were expelled while Borrell was in Moscow was a very deliberate slap in the EU’s collective face


• The tone of the Russian media has also changed, journalists and experts are all expressing their utter disgust with the EU and are calling for less words and more actions


• The NS2 lobby in Russia (who advocated a policy of total non-confrontation at least until NS2 was completed) is rather absent from the public discourse. This might mean that this lobby has thrown in the towel or, alternatively, that the block I call “Eurasian sovereignists” does not consider NS2 as vital for Russia (they are correct, by the way) and that putting the squeeze on the EU is much more important (again, I agree with them here too).


• The EU’s other anti-Russian vendetta, I am referring to the recent attempt at overthrowing Lukashenko, has also failed. However, this PSYOP was so rude and crude, and the EU acted with such arrogance that it really gave Russia no other option than to take action, not only by flying Tu-160s along the Belarussian border or by selling S-400s, but also by using highly symbolic diplomatic countermeasures.


• The Russian Aerospace Forces (2 Su-24M, 2 Su-27s and 2 Su-30SM) have conducted mock missile strikes against USN ships as soon as they entered the southern waters of the Black Sea. Note: the same day Chinese aircraft conducted a mock attack on a US carrier in the Pacific.


• Russia has now deployed both the Bal and even the formidable Bastion coastal missile defense systems. This, combined with the formidable capabilities of the Southern Military District and the Black Sea Fleet which turns the entire Black Sea into a shooting range and any hostile ship into an easy target for the Russians. Clearly, the Russians are fed up with the arrogance of the USN.


• Defense Minister Shoigu has just announced a major increase in the production of high-precision and hypersonic weapons.

These are just a few examples of a much longer list of changes which are taking place before our eyes.

So far, the EU did not get the message at all. At least officially. But witnessing the infighting taking place not only over Borrell’s trip, but also about what to do about vaccines (The Lancet has just posted a major article entitled “Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective” which basically said that all the western nonsense about Sputnik-V being BOTH 1) unsafe AND 2) ineffective were lies) I can clearly see that the EU rulers are seriously worried. Right now it sure looks like the EU is losing the “COVID propaganda war” and that all these russophobic states (except the hardcore nutcases of 3B+PU) will have to now ask Russia for her vaccines. So far the only official EU reaction was to expel 3 Russian diplomats and somewhat protest. But these are clearly the opening shots of a much longer confrontation between Russia and the EU.

The crucial factor to consider here is this: while the aggregate power of the US+NATO+EU+5EYES is bigger than Russia’s, the mental paralysis of the EU leaders makes the EU alone already much weaker than Russia. Of course, since Biden’s administration is a who’s who of the most hysterical russophobes imaginable, chances are that the US will interfere and attempt to back the anti-Russian factions in the EU. Considering the tone used by Russian officials over the latest USN provocations in the Black Sea and the Sea of Japan, I don’t doubt the Kremlin’s determination to act both in words and with actions.

And then there are the subtle threats which the general public is rarely exposed to. The latest example is a highly specialized article entitled “Rationale for the combat use of aviation to disrupt an integrated massive air strike during a multi-domain operation of the enemy” which explains how Russia could disrupt and defeat a NATO attack. I won’t go into all the (very interesting) details here, but I will just say that the authors declare that Russia can go from a policy of deterrence by nuclear forces to a policy of (conventional) deterrence by having the means to “inflict comprehensive defeat (upon NATO countries) using all types of weapons within the deterrence of inflicting an unacceptable complex defeat on it with all types of weapons within the framework of preventive actions under the conditions of the danger of local war threatening the Russian Federation“. In truth, this is not the only Russian specialized article discussing the future of warfare, and what makes this one truly unique is that RT, of all places, decided to post an article about it entitled “Russian Air Force experts publish plan to neutralize NATO forces in all-out war with bombing strikes“. This really looks like the Kremlin wanted to make absolutely sure that western politicians (as opposed to western military analysts who read that stuff on a daily basis anyway) would think long and hard about what US military plans for NATO really would mean for the EU.

Then there is the outcome of the Polish military command staff exercise Winter-20 which resulted in, I kid you not, Russia completely defeating the Polish military in 5 days only! (For details, see here, here or here). Again, there is nothing really new here, the US and/or NATO have conducted plenty of exercises which had the “Russian hordes” defeating the “forces of democracy and progress”. And, again, the real difference was in the Russian coverage of this news: for the first time the Russians openly made fun of NATO and of the (always paranoid and insanely russophobic) Poles. In truth, the Russians always knew that the Polish military is as good on pompous ceremonies and parades as it is inept on the battlefield, but that kind of open contempt is something new, at least from the state supported media.

So far, the EU clearly is not coming to terms with this new reality. The latest (breathtakingly stupid) EU plan to try to scare “Putin” (here “Putin” is the collective Kremlin boogeyman, not necessarily VVP): Svetlana Tikhanovskaia has appealed to the wife of Navalnyi, Iulia, to become the “she president of Russia”. Yes, seriously. Iulia Navalnaia as President of Russia!

As for Navalnyi’s supporters in the EU, they have decided to create a Russian government in exile. Again, this is not a joke. By the way, the “Minister of Foreign Affairs” of this “Russian Government in Exile”, Leonid Volkov, initially declared that the illegal riots should be halted, only to be told otherwise by his handlers. He immediately made a required 180 and declared that protests will resume. This is how Maria Zakharova bluntly, and very officially, reacted on Facebook to his “change of mind”: (minimally fixed machine translation)

NATO doubles down

On February 4, 2021, Volkov declared that the protests in Russia were canceled and will resume in the spring and summer. “We will not hold a rally next weekend…The wave of protest must end at a high point. Because if we continue to decline, it will be terribly demotivating and frustrating for everyone… We will prepare well and hold something big both in the spring and in the summer. We will never give up our demands.” Then, on February 9, 2021, Volkov changed his mind and announced that the campaign will continue in February. “We’ll make it much trickier” he added. What happened between February 4 and 9 and forced the “opposition” to radically change tactics? Everything is quite simple – on February 8, 2021, an online meeting with Volkov and Ashurkov took place at the Permanent Mission of Poland to the EU in Brussels, in which EU countries, the United States, and Britain took part. And in fact-this was a meeting of the NATO countries. The NATO members instructed the “opposition”, and in fact their agents of influence, how to continue “more cunning” to conduct subversive work. Too much money and resources have already been invested by the West in this story to wait until spring. They clearly understand: in the spring, the information campaign pumped up by Westerners will be blown away. They can no longer juggle the topic of “chemical weapons” without presenting the facts – they are pinned to the wall. So they double down.

As for Navalnyi and his supporters, Zakarova was even more direct, saying “stop calling them opposition, they are NATO agents!”.

As I have explained many times, western politicians double down not when they feel strong, they double down when they feel weak and when they place their hopes in the willingness of the other side not to seriously further escalate.

And, just to make sure that the Empire can win the battle for the “hearts and minds” of the Russian people, the Brits are now counting (again) on Pussy Riot to release a song in support of protests. Again, while this does sound like a joke, it is not.

Now comes the best part: there are a lot of signs that the EU will, again under the pious pretext of “solidarity” follow the 3B+PU politicians and, if not recognize such a government in exile, at least treat its members as real officials. That is also supposed to also terrify the Kremlin, I guess. But if that is the best the EU can come up with, VVP and the people of Russia, can sleep in peace.

So where do we go from here?

Making predictions is a tricky thing when dealing with both 1) countries with limited agency/sovereignty and 2) countries led by incompetent/delusional politicians. The many theories of deterrence out there all assume what is called a “rational actor” and a truly sovereign state. What is certain is that the Empire and its EU protectorates will only increase what I call “petty harassment measures” to try to offend and humiliate Russia (stuff like this crap). In response to such “ankle biting” Russia will do two things: drop any pretense of diplomacy and denounce these “ankle bites” for what they are (provocations) and further turn to Zone B (aka “reliable partners”) for partnerships. Russia will also bluntly spell out to the Europeans the risks they are taking with their ill-conceived sabre rattling along the Russian border. Sadly, this probably means that, just as the Chinese Navy recently, the Russian Aerospace Forces and Navies will have order to engage any aircraft or vessel threatening Russia (so far these are only rumors, but they are persistent and seem to have strong backing in the Duma). This is a very dangerous development as western politicians, being primarily ideological (and, therefore, delusional) creatures will always prefer to play a game of (headless) chicken hoping that the other guy will back down. The fact that the “other guy” (both Russian and Chinese) in the past did, indeed, back down and show restraint only further encourages western politicians to double down forever no matter what. For these reasons I would call the probability of an actual military clash between US/NATO and/or Russia/China as “likely in 2021”. As for the future of NS2, I always assumed that EU politicians can count their Euros and realize that the EU needs that project way more than Russia. Frankly, I am not so sure now: counting on the mental abilities of a headless chicken is probably not a good idea! Neither is counting on the courage of the type of politicians whom Boris Johnson once called “supine invertebrate protoplasmic jellies“.

It appears that Russia and the EU are on a direct collision course. Frankly, I welcome it, in spite of the obvious dangers. Why? Because nothing except a real confrontation can bring EU politicians down to the real world back from the La-La land they currently live in. The Russian bear needs to smack down the headless chicken. Hard.

END

Unz : Everything That Challenges the Establishment's Supremacy Must be “White Supremacy”
VDare : Everything That Challenges the Establishment's Supremacy Must be “White Supremacy”
Unz : “GamerStopGate”—Why the Left Hates Normal Americans Making Money Day Trading

Götterdämmerung

A Beautiful Plan

Dmitry Orlov | Club Orlov | January 30, 2021

It looked great on paper. Get Joe Biden into office, get Janet Yellen to print many more trillions of dollars, inflate the Everything Bubble to astronomic proportions and then... pop it, of course, but in a delicately choreographed manner so that those who are well connected and in the know head for the exits first and make a killing while everyone else ends up sleeping in cardboard boxes on median strips under highway overpasses. What did you think they were going to do, make America great again? That bit of populist demagogy was a bit too transparently bogus even for The Donald. He just wanted to sell some hats.

In any case, back to the plan. It was a beautiful plan, and it could have worked out just great for Biden's presidential coffin and all who sail in her, except for one tiny problem...

...It was too bloody obvious! Anybody with even a rudimentary understanding of transcendental mathematics (that's the kind transcendental numbers such as e and π in it) knows that this sucker is going to go down. One doesn't just go on printing more and more money all the time forever. Eventually something snaps. Attempting to time the event is an exercise in pointlessness, but by now a critical mass of people is convinced that something can snap any time now.

Attempting to engineer financial collapse in order to profit from it wouldn't be pointless if the one engineering it were the only intelligent person in the whole world. But that is not the case. And so, enough people now know that this sucker is going down and, not willing to go along with the plan of having them take up residence in a cardboard box on the median strip under a highway overpass, they have started to rock the boat. Gamestop stock trading 1000% of its capitalization in 5 days is just one symptom of ensuing chaos that will make a controlled demolition of the Everything Bubble impossible to orchestrate.

Yes, financial collapse will happen and yes, it will be chaotic, as collapses generally tend to be. For all sorts of strange reasons the US has chosen to collapse backwards from the canonical collapse progression. It started with cultural and social collapse, which have by now largely run their course. It went on to political collapse: four years of a contested presidency culminating in an election that has turned the term “American democracy” into an oxymoron for the entire planet. Commercial collapse came next, with a massive wave of business closures and bankruptcies. And now the stage is set for the mother of all financial collapses.

If you think that Americans have some serious mental health issues but that the situation is still manageable, you just need to wait because what will come after the financial collapse is...

Götterdämmerung 
[Excerpt from my book The Five Stages of Collapse]

There are people who really do think that what they are worth as individuals can be defined as their “net worth,” which is a number written on a piece of paper, denominated in US dollars or euros. It is as if the only thing that is real to them is money. For such people financial collapse results in a radical loss of meaning, as if all the words in the only language they speak no longer refer to anything they can identify within their surroundings. In such people financial collapse produces a dangerous sense of unreality, an anomie.

The term, used by the father of sociology Émile Durkheim, in his 1897 book Suicide, indicates a loss of social norms and bounds, a breakdown of the bonds that tie an individual to the community and an inability to regulate or control one’s own behavior. People who have previously lived relatively humble lives within rigid financially and socially defined limits simultaneously lose their appetite (not knowing what their new status determines it proper for them to desire) and become insatiable (not knowing how much their new status determines their proper allotment to be relative to those of higher or lower status). In some of these people, once they are severed from the system of financial inducements and constraints to which they had previously been conditioned and which had regulated their social behavior, this sense of unreality resolves into a masochistic drive—a Freudian death wish—to dissolve in a whirlpool of fraudulent financial abstractions. If the financial crisis of 2008 is viewed as a botched suicide attempt by the financial elite, then it seems likely that they will try again.

Viewed as a religious cult, modern finance revolves around the miracle of the spontaneous generation of money in a set of rituals performed by the high priests of central banking. People hang on the high priests’ every word, attempting to divine the secret meaning behind their cryptic utterances. Their interventions before the unknowable deity of global finance assure them of economic recovery and continued prosperity, just as a shaman’s rain dance guarantees rain or a ritual sacrifice atop a Mayan pyramid once promised a bountiful harvest of maize. All such rituals derive their effectiveness from one key requirement: that the thing they promise to deliver happens in any case, and does so regularly enough to make the oracles’ failure to deliver the exception rather than the rule.

But when the monsoon fails year after year, when the Nile does not flood and irrigate the fields, when the earth is parched and crops wither and when, in spite of the actions of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the IMF, the economy goes from bad to worse, the result is Götterdämmerung—twilight of the gods. This is the name of Richard Wagner’s Der Ring des Nibelungen— The Ring Cycle, a suite of four very long operas. According to Old Norse mythology, Götterdämmerung is a time when the gods battle each other to the death while the world is (almost) destroyed in a flood (perhaps allowing for a rebirth later on). Many cultures have similar apocalyptic myths. The plot is always the same: people have put their trust in their gods; their gods have forsaken them; everyone perishes.

END

His Master’s Voice (1920)

La “verdad” que nos imponen

José Pablo Feinmann | Canal de YouTube de Jorge Cotera | 18 de diciembre de 2011 | Aqui

Es innegable la capacidad que tienen los medios de comunicación para imponer la verdad, en la medida en que, al no existir los “hechos, sino las interpretaciones”, y al estar esta en las manos de los medios, tales interpretaciones les permiten delinear la verdad a su antojo, y luego repetirla tantas veces hasta que termine por ser la verdad de todos.

Los “medios nobles” como fueron llamados en el pasado, son después del legislativo, el judicial y el ejecutivo; el cuarto poder, y quizá el primero de todos.

El Poder y la Verdad en Foucault

A Verdade é o Poder que a determina.

A Falsidade é o Poder que a determina.

O que não é Verdade é Falsidade.

Quem nega a Verdade é Criminoso.

Quem afirma a Falsidade é Criminoso.

Os Criminosos Serão Implacávelmente Punidos.

Tá proibido o dedo em riste!

La televisión y la filosofía no forman una pareja habitual, pero el filósofo, escritor y guionista de cine José Pablo Feinmann enfrenta el desafío de abordar esta disciplina en profundidad y con un lenguaje accesible.

La intención es doble; no sólo se propone revisar las preguntas fundamentales que formularon grandes filósofos, como Descartes, Kant, Hegel, Nietzsche, Heidegger, Marx o Sartre, sino también permitir que la reflexión filosófica aflore como una actitud ante el mundo que nos rodea.

Filosofía aquí y ahora - Foucault (I)

Filosofía aquí y ahora - Foucault (II)

FIM

Is the NHS overwhelmed
           by incoming COVID-19 patients?

Ludovic Noble | OffGuardian | January 28, 2021 | Original and comments here.

A woman was arrested in her home after she posted a video of herself wandering around an apparently empty Gloucestershire Royal Hospital. The video appears to conflict with the impression left by the mainstream media: that hospitals are full with COVID-19 patients and can’t cope.

It appears to conflict with the reports of doctors and nurses who are insisting that they are indeed busy and are working overwhelmingly long shifts to keep up with the added stress caused by COVID-19. So what’s going on?

The answer appears to be complicated. Here’s a summary of the situation according to the data:

• Hospitals are overwhelmed but not due to an influx of COVID-19 patients.

• They are overwhelmed because the NHS is already overwhelmed and has reduced bed capacity and are sending people home who test positive for COVID-19.

• The number of people with COVID-19 in hospitals is large but the number of people coming into hospitals with COVID-19 is about the same (a bit worse) as a bad flu season.

According to the NHS official spreadsheet Beds Time-series 2010-11 onwards (XLS, 93KB) (download here), the overnight bed occupancy rate is actually lower than in previous years [Notes & Sources 1].

The reason why is more or less explained in this BBC article: beds are being removed so that the remaining beds can be spaced out to prevent infection.

The reason why staff are so busy, despite there actually being fewer patients in hospital than normal, is because of the measures being taken to prevent infection spreading. This involves sending doctors and nurses home when they test positive for COVID-19, making them go through anti-infection procedures and, as mentioned, reducing the total number of available beds so that they can be spaced out (the total number of overnight beds was reduced by about 10,000 in this period).

In addition, the NHS is already an overwhelmed health system. Dr Mark Holland, president of the Society for Acute Medicine (SAM), said in 2016:

The volume of patients and disease severity is so much that we are now functioning at the edge of what is possible.

In 2018, the Guardian reported:

four in five intensive care units (ICUs) are having to send patients to other hospitals as a result of chronic bed and staff shortages.

It is plausible, therefore, that reducing the capacity of beds and sending staff home would make the NHS even more overwhelmed than it was before. The question now is: Are incoming COVID-19 patients contributing in a significant way to the overwhelming of the NHS?

According to this NHS official spreadsheet January 2021 COVID Publication (XLSX, 12.8MB) (download here), the number of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 daily in England was about 300 at the start of November. It reached about 1,000 in early January [Notes & Sources 2].

This number of people being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 is comparable to the number of people admitted to hospital with the flu during a bad flu year. I couldn’t find official data on historic flu admissions. However, if we use this BBC article as a reference:

around 5,000 people were admitted to hospital with flu in the first week of January [in 2018].

2018 was a bad flu year. The number of people being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in England during this winter has reached about 1,000 people a day, so about 7,000 people a week. 2018 was a bad flu year, so we can say this year is comparable (a bit worse) to a bad flu year.

In conclusion, the NHS is overwhelmed but not because the public are being hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 at an extraordinary rate. The NHS is overwhelmed because (1) it is already an overwhelmed system and (2) the hospitals are working at a reduced capacity.

Of course, this discussion introduces more questions, namely, would the hospitalisation rate be higher if it weren’t for the restrictions and, regardless, does the possibility of the NHS being overwhelmed justify these restrictions? It is not the aim of this article to answer these questions.

Notes & Sources

1. The occupancy rate of overnight beds is usually around 85%.
   However, it was at 50% at 2020/21 Q1 and 70% at 2020/21 Q2. In other words: The have been proportionally fewer people in hospital at the end of 2020 and start of 2021 than in previous years.


2. If you use this spreadsheet Daily Admissions and Beds 21 January2021 (XLSX, 164KB) on the same page you may be led to believe that the number of people being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 daily in England has been around 4,000. However, this is the number of admissions and “diagnoses in hospital.”

OffGuardian Coronavirus Category here.

END